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THE BIOMETHANE DEVELOPMENT IN GERMANY, IT’S DRIVING FORCES AND A FORECAST – A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING APPROACH

文献类型: 会议论文

第一作者: Thomas Horschig

作者: Thomas Horschig 1 ; Eric Billig 2 ; Janet Witt 2 ; Ronny Wirkner 2 ; Daniela Thraen 3 ;

作者机构: 1.Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (DBFZ), Torgauer Stra?e 116, 04347 Leipzig, Germany, thomas.horschig@dbfz.de

2.Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (DBFZ), Torgauer Stra?e 116, 04347 Leipzig, Germany

3.Deutsches Biomasseforschungszentrum (DBFZ), Torgauer Stra?e 116, 04347 Leipzig, Germany UFZ, Permoserstra?e 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany, daniela.thraen@ufz.de

关键词: bioenergy;modelling;market forecasts;policies

会议名称: European biomass conference and exhibition

主办单位:

页码: 1384-1392

摘要: The mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the reinforcement of renewable energy are well knownnational and international targets. Bioenergy, by the production of heat and power as well as fuel can contribute tothese targets. Especially in the field of biomass based energy the difficulties lie in uncertainties of cost dynamics andpolicy changes (responding to continuously adopted supporting market instruments like feed-in tariffs) as well asexternal costs and requirements for concomitants like accumulation of nutrients in the groundwater or biodiversity.An important contribution to a sustainable and decarbonized energy economy can be made by biomethane, because itreduces GHG emissions substituting fossil energy carriers, its storable and usable in efficient combined heat andpower plants. The purpose of this work is to design a model that simulates the historical biomethane marketdevelopment in Germany to identify the occurring driving forces and to derive market development impacts. This isdone to evaluate these driving forces and to enable the model to simulate the future biomethane market developmentbased on three different scenarios. In this manner the ideal framework conditions for a competitive price forbiomethane in comparison to fossil gas considering the traded quantity will be derived.

分类号: s216

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