文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Xu Lei ¹ ; Zhang Qiao ¹ ; Zhang Jing ¹ ; Zhao Liang ¹ ; Sun Wei ¹ ; Jin Yun-xiang ¹ ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agr Informat Inst, Key Lab Agriinformat Serv Technol, Minist Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

关键词： extreme meteorological disaster;grain production;danger degree of hazard-induced factors;vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies;Jilin Province in China

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF INTEGRATIVE AGRICULTURE （ 影响因子：2.848； 五年影响因子：2.979 ）

ISSN： 2095-3119

年卷期： 2017 年 16 卷 2 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distribution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of "diminishing marginal loss", namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain productiOn of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In response to ensure China's grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.