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Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase gaps of rice yields between low- and middle-to-high-income countries

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Song, Lian 1 ; Tao, Ye 1 ; van Groenigen, Kees Jan 3 ; Chang, Scott X. 4 ; Penuelas, Josep 5 ; Zhang, Jishuang 1 ; You, Liangzhi 7 ; Cai, Chuang 1 ; Wang, Songhan 9 ; Jiang, Yu 9 ; Ma, Chuanqi 1 ; Yan, Xiaoyuan 1 ; Ni, Kang 10 ; Wang, Dongming 1 ; Wang, Yu 1 ; Zhu, Chunwu 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, State Key Lab Soil & Sustainable Agr, Nanjing, Peoples R China

2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China

3.Univ Exeter, Dept Geog, Fac Environm Sci & Econ, Exeter, England

4.Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB, Canada

5.UAB, CSIC, Global Ecol Unit, CREAF, Bellaterra, Spain

6.CREAF, Cerdanyola Del Valles, Spain

7.Huazhong Agr Univ, Macro Agr Res Inst, Coll Econ & Management, Wuhan, Peoples R China

8.Int Food Policy Res Inst IFPRI, Washington, DC USA

9.Nanjing Agr Univ, Coll Agr, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Crop Prod, Key Lab Crop Physiol & Ecol Southern China, Nanjing, Peoples R China

10.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Tea Res Inst, Minist Agr, Key Lab Tea Biol & Resource Utilizat, Hangzhou, Peoples R China

期刊名称：NATURE FOOD （ 影响因子：23.6； 五年影响因子：25.0 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2024 年

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The rising carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to increase future rice yields. However, variations in the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) between rice subspecies and the influence of concurrent global warming introduce uncertainty in future global rice yield projections. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of rising carbon dioxide field experiments and employed crop modelling to assess future global rice yields for the top 14 rice producing countries. We found a robust parabolic relationship between rice CFE and temperature, with significant variations between rice subspecies. Our projections indicate that global rice production in the 2050s is expected to increase by 50.32 million tonnes (7.6%) due to CFE compared with historical production. Because low-income countries will experience higher temperatures, the gaps (difference of Delta yield) between middle-to-high-income and low-income countries are projected to widen from the 2030s to the 2090s under elevated carbon dioxide. These findings underscore the critical role of CFE and emphasize the necessity to increase investments in research and technology for rice producing systems in low-income countries. Accurately predicting how much rising atmospheric carbon dioxide can increase rice production is important for managing global rice production. This study highlights that elevated carbon dioxide will boost rice yields more in middle-to-high-income countries than in low-income countries, and that this yield gap will continue to widen in the future.

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