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Hydrological connectivity-mediated spatial vegetation patterns and regime shifts in drylands

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Liu, Xin 1 ; Xue, Jie 1 ; Chang, Jingjing 1 ; Sun, Huaiwei 4 ; Zhao, Ying 5 ; Li, Fei 6 ; Wang, Shunke 1 ; Lei, Qiangyan 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Key Lab Ecol Safety & Sustainable Dev Arid Lands, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China

2.Cele Natl Stn Observat & Res Desert Grassland Ecos, Cele 848300, Hetian, Peoples R China

3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China

4.Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Civil & Hydraul Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

5.Ludong Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Engn, Yantai Key Lab Coastal Ecohydrol Proc & Environm S, Yantai 264025, Peoples R China

6.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Grassland Res, Hohhot 010010, Peoples R China

关键词： Dryland; Hydrological connectivity; Regime shifts; Spatial vegetation patterns; Early warning signal

期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS （ 影响因子：7.4； 五年影响因子：7.2 ）

ISSN： 1470-160X

年卷期： 2025 年 171 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Hydrological connectivity (HC) provides essential information about ecosystem structure and function at large spatial scales, playing a pivotal role in predicting catchment ecosystem degradation in drylands. However, the relationships between HC and spatial vegetation patterns, and their interactions that contribute to regime shifts in catchment ecosystems, remain unclear. This study selects the Tarim River Basin in Northwest China as a typical study area to reveal the mutual effects and relationships between HC and vegetation patterns using the improved index of connectivity (IIC), spatial vegetation pattern indexes, potential analysis, and partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM). The regime shifts model is used to explore the effectiveness and critical threshold of HC as an early warning indicator for ecosystem degradation. The findings show that: (1) the hydrological connectivity exhibits significant spatial variability due to the influences of the terrain characteristics and vegetation cover; (2) the basin displays two distinct high and low modes of hydrological connectivity. As vegetation cover decreases to approximately 0.23, the ecosystem undergoes a sudden and discontinuous shift from the low to high hydrological connectivity mode; and (3) the increased hydrological connectivity leads to marked changes in spatial vegetation pattern metrics, indicating the effectiveness of hydrological connectivity as an early warning signal of ecosystem degradation. The positive feedback loop between reduced vegetation cover and increased hydrological connectivity accelerates regime shifts, potentially leading to irreversible ecosystem degradation if not properly mitigated. This study lays an important foundation for identifying potential degradation hotspots at larger scales, and explores the potential of hydrological connectivity as an early warning indicator for regime transitions.

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