文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： He, Yong ¹ ; Xiong, Wei ² ; Hu, Pengcheng ³ ; Huang, Daiqing ⁵ ; Feurtado, J. Allan ⁵ ; Zhang, Tianyi ⁶ ; Hao, Chenyang ⁷ ; DePauw, Ron ⁸ ; Zheng, Bangyou ⁹ ; Hoogenboom, Gerrit ¹⁰ ; Dixonj, Laura E. ¹¹ ; Wang, Hong ¹² ; Challinor, Andrew Juan ¹³ ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

2.Int Maize & Wheat Improvement Ctr, Sustainable Agrifood Syst, Texcoco 56237, Mexico

3.CSIRO, Agr & Food, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

4.Univ Queensland, Sch Agr & Food Sustainabil, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia

5.Natl Res Council Canada, Aquat & Crop Resource Dev, Saskatoon, SK S7N 0W9, Canada

6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China

7.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

8.Adv Wheat Technol, 118 Strathcona Rd SW, Calgary, AB T3H 1P3, Canada

9.CSIRO, Agr & Food, Queensland Biosci Precinct, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia

10.Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA

11.Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

12.Fleetwood Postal Outlet, HW Eco Res Grp, Surrey, BC V4N 9E9, Canada

13.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England

关键词： Wheat flowering date stability; Crop modeling; Vernalization; Photoperiod; Climate change

期刊名称：SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT （ 影响因子：9.8； 五年影响因子：9.6 ）

ISSN： 0048-9697

年卷期： 2024 年 917 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi -locus genotype -based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheatflowering -dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat -flowering -dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat -flowering -date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheatflowering -date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.