文献类型： 会议论文

第一作者： Zhemin Li

作者： Zhemin Li ¹ ; Ganqiong Li ¹ ; Yuting Wang ¹ ;

作者机构： 1.Agricultural information institute of CAAS, Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing,100081, China

关键词： eggs;market price;short-term forecast of market price;impact factor;econometric model;forecast

会议名称： International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security 2010

主办单位：

页码： 396-401

摘要： China is the great power of poultry in the world, and its egg production ranks first in the world. With the transition of China’s agricultural products market from the planned circulation system to the free flow circulation under the national macro-control, the cyclical fluctuations of eggs market price were increasingly frequent. The healthy development of China's eggs industry was related to how to filter the variable factors and establish econometric models that could realize timely and dynamic monitoring on short-term fluctuations of eggs market price, which also provided real-time market information and trends for farmers, enhancing their ability against market risk and increasing their income. According to the characteristics of poultry industry and the conditions of data acquisition, four correlation factors accessing to timely and comprehensive data were selected as independent variables. The short-term forecast model on eggs market price was constructed and tested with the validity. Alsothe forecast results of that model were evaluated. The significative exploration on short-term prediction market price of agricultural products was made in this paper.

分类号： S-532