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A Method for Spatially Explicit Assessment of Potential Risks of Food Insecurity

文献类型： 会议论文

第一作者： Wenbin Wu

作者： Wenbin Wu 1 ; Peng Yang 1 ; Huajun Tang 1 ; Qingbo Zhou 1 ; Zhongxin Chen 1 ; Ryosuke Shibasaki 2 ;

作者机构： 1.Inslitule of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

2.Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan

会议名称： International Conference on Agricultural Risk and Food Security 2010

主办单位：

页码： 325-333

摘要： This paper presented an approach of combining together the biophysical, social and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential risks of food insecurity. Two indicators, i.e., per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were used here to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the fornier representing the status of food availability and stability and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework in a loose coupling method. This proposed approach was applied to assess potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting with the year2000. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000-2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries and most southern American countries wherethere is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asian countries and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food w'ill decrease betw'een 2000 and 2020, thus more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power, as w’ell as the substantial adaptive capacity and proactive food management systems.

分类号： S-532

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