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Scenario-based assessment of future food security

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Wu Wenbin 1 ; Tang Huajun 1 ; Yang Peng 1 ; You Liangzhi; Zhou Qingbo 1 ; Chen Zhongxin 1 ; Shibasaki, Ryosuke 4 ;

作者机构： 1.Minist Agr, Key Lab Resources Remote Sensing & Digital Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

2.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

3.Univ Tokyo, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci, Tokyo 1538505, Japan

4.Univ Tokyo, Ctr Spatial Informat Sci, Tokyo 15385

关键词： scenario;food security;per capita food availability;per capita GDP;model;assessment

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES （ 影响因子：3.534； 五年影响因子：3.647 ）

ISSN： 1009-637X

年卷期： 2011 年 21 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

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