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Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Ye Liming 1 ; Yang Guixia 1 ; Van Ranst, Eric 2 ; Tang Huajun 3 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Minist Agr, Key Lab Agri Informat, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

2.Univ Ghent, Dept Geol & Soil Sci W E13, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

3.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

关键词： time series analysis;statistical model;polynomial trend;Fourier method;ARIMA;climate change

期刊名称：ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES （ 影响因子：3.158； 五年影响因子：3.033 ）

ISSN： 0256-1530

年卷期： 2013 年 30 卷 2 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (similar to 10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

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