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Evaluation and prediction of the effects of planetary orbital variations to earth's temperature changes

文献类型: 外文期刊

作者: Cao, Mengmeng 1 ; Mao, Kebiao 1 ; Bateni, Sayed M. 2 ; Chen, Jing M. 4 ; Heggy, Essam 6 ; Kug, Jong-Seong 8 ; Shen, Xinyi 9 ;

作者机构: 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, State Key Lab Efficient Utilizat Arid & Semiarid A, Beijing, Peoples R China

2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Honolulu, HI USA

3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Water Resources Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA

4.Fujian Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Fuzhou, Peoples R China

5.Univ Toronto, Dept Geog & Planning, Toronto, ON, Canada

6.Univ Southern Calif, Viterbi Sch Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA

7.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA

8.Pohang Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm Sci & Engn, Pohang, South Korea

9.Univ Wisconsin Milwaukee, Sch Freshwater Sci, Milwaukee, WI USA

关键词: Planetary motion; Earth's temperature; Greenhouse gases

期刊名称:INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DIGITAL EARTH ( 影响因子:4.9; 五年影响因子:4.7 )

ISSN: 1753-8947

年卷期: 2025 年 18 卷 1 期

页码:

收录情况: SCI

摘要: The influence of planetary orbital changes on Earth's temperature has been poorly quantified and subject to speculation. Here, we delineated the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth's temperature and forecasted the latter. Our results indicate that Earth's revolution around the Sun and its rotation explain similar to 75.36% and 15.91% of Earth's temperature variations in one year, while the Moon's revolution around the Earth and other planet motions account for 8.26% and 0.26%, respectively. Orbital forcings contributed similar to 11.5% global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by similar to 0.13 degrees C from 2020 to 2027. However, orbital forcings may contribute to similar to 0.25 degrees C cooling of Earth from 2027 to 2050, but this effect remains insufficient to offset the warming caused by CO2

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