Agricultural machinery could contribute 20% of total carbon and air pollutant emissions by 2050 and compromise carbon neutrality targets in China
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Zhuang, Minghao 1 ; Wang, Xu 1 ; Yang, Yi 3 ; Wu, Yifei 1 ; Wang, Ligang 4 ; Lu, Xi 5 ;
作者机构： 1.China Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, State Key Lab Nutrient Use & Management, Key Lab Plant Soil Interact,Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.China Agr Univ, Natl Acad Agr Green Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Chongqing Univ, Key Lab Three Gorges Reservoir Reg Ecoenvironm, Minist Educ, Chongqing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, State Key Lab Efficient Utilizat Arid & Semiarid A, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Lab Reg Environm & Sustainabil, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Carbon Neutral, Beijing, Peoples R China
7.Tsinghua Univ, Beijing Lab Environm Frontier Technol, Beijing, Peoples R China
期刊名称：NATURE FOOD （ 影响因子：21.9； 五年影响因子：28.3 ）
ISSN：
年卷期： 2025 年 6 卷 5 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Agricultural mechanization has benefitted food security in China, but carbon dioxide (CO2) and air pollutant emissions from fuel combustion are often overlooked. Here we show that emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from agricultural machinery increased nearly sevenfold and four- to sevenfold, respectively, during 1985-2020, driven largely by rapid advancement in the mechanization level. If unabated, annual emissions of CO2, PM2.5 and NOx from agricultural machinery in 2050 could reach 213.6 Mt, 55.4 Gg and 902.8 Gg, contributing similar to 21%, similar to 4% and similar to 17% of China's total emissions under a dual-carbon goal scenario, respectively. However, adoption of renewable energy sources could mitigate 65-70% of these emissions. Our study highlights that China's agricultural machinery could become a large source of emissions that-without mitigation-may hinder China's carbon neutrality targets and degrade air quality.
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