您好，欢迎访问中国农业科学院 机构知识库！

全部

  • 全部
  • 标题
  • 学者
  • 机构
  • 关键词

Impact of Climate Change on Oriental Migratory Locust Suitability: A Multi-Source Data and MaxEnt-Based Analysis in Hainan Island

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Sun, Zhongxiang 1 ; Ye, Huichun 1 ; Kong, Weiping 1 ; Nie, Chaojia 1 ; Bai, Huiqing 4 ;

作者机构： 1.Hainan Aerosp Informat Res Inst, Key Lab Earth Observat Hainan Prov, Sanya 572029, Peoples R China

2.China Agr Museum, Beijing 100125, Peoples R China

3.Chinese Acad Sci, Aerosp Informat Res Inst, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China

4.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

关键词： MaxEnt model; environmental variables; suitability; climate change; remote sensing data

期刊名称：REMOTE SENSING （ 影响因子：4.1； 五年影响因子：4.8 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年 17 卷 8 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This study employed an integrated approach combining multi-source remote sensing data and the MaxEnt model to systematically assess the ecological niche characteristics of the oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in Hainan Island, while projecting the evolution of its suitable habitats under both historical and future climate scenarios (up to 2040). Firstly, we synthesized traditional climate, soil, and topography data with remote sensing data to characterize the suitable areas of the oriental migratory locust based on MaxEnt model (with high accuracy of AUC = 0.935 and TSS = 0.76). Subsequently, six dominant environmental variables-precipitation in April (PRE04), precipitation in September (PRE09), maximum temperature in August (TMAX08), minimum temperature in December (TMIN12), NDVI in February (NDVI02), and NDVI in May (NDVI02)-were identified as key predictors. Their threshold values were determined, with PRE04, PRE09, TMAX08, and TMIN12 ranging from 39 to 44 mm, 196 to 223 mm, 31.1 to 32.2 degrees C, and 17.7 to 18.0 degrees C in high-suitability zones, respectively. Finally, these six predictors were used to assess habitat suitability across Hainan Island for both the 2001-2020 and 2021-2040 periods. Under historical climate conditions, highly suitable areas (505 km2, 1.41% of total land area) were concentrated in the western and northeastern regions, particularly in Dongfang City (46.27%), Ledong Li Autonomous County (32.91%), and Changjiang Li Autonomous County (18.39%). Future projections indicate significant habitat expansion, with total suitable areas increasing by 13.4-42.0% and highly suitable areas reaching 571-831 km2 by 2040. The study highlights the critical Dongfang-Danzhou-Ledong region for targeted locust control, providing scientific support for pest management in tropical island ecosystems under climate change.

  • 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>
置顶
购物车
反馈

© 京ICP备09089781号-29 主办单位：中国农业科学院

学术资源： 中国农业科学院 农业专业知识服务系统 农科联盟资源共建共享平台 中国农业科技文献与信息服务平台 中国农业期刊集成服务平台