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Ecological risks linked with ecosystem services in the upper reach of the Yellow River under global changes

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Li, Ruowei 1 ; Sun, Jian 1 ; Han, Guodong 2 ; Qi, Zixuan 3 ; Li, Yunhui 1 ; Chen, Junhe 1 ; He, Wen 4 ; Zhang, Mengqi 1 ; Han, Chaowei 5 ; Duo, Jieji 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Sci LATPE, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

2.Inner Mongolia Agr Univ, Coll Grassland Resources & Environm, Minist Educ, Key Lab Grassland Resources, Hohhot 010019, Peoples R China

3.Guangdong Univ Technol, Sch Ecol Environm & Resources, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Water Qual Improvement & Ec, Guangzhou 510006, Peoples R China

4.Sichuan Univ, Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Inst Disaster Management & Reconstruct, Chengdu 610207, Peoples R China

5.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Grassland Res, Hohhot 010010, Peoples R China

6.Haixi Forest Pest Control & Quarantine Ctr, Delingha 817099, Peoples R China

关键词： climate change; CMIP6; Yellow River basin; Tibetan Plateau; adaptive management; sustainable development

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF INTEGRATIVE AGRICULTURE （ 影响因子：4.4； 五年影响因子：4.8 ）

ISSN： 2095-3119

年卷期： 2025 年 24 卷 3 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： There is growing interest in introducing ecological risks (ERs) and ecosystem services (ESs) into environmental policies and practices. However, the integration of ESs and ERs into actual decision-making remains insufficient. We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs (e.g., carbon storage, water yield, habitat quality, and soil conservation) and ERs in the upper reach of the Yellow River (URYR) from 2000 to 2100. Additionally, we explored their relationships by combining the InVEST model and a landscape ecological risk model with CMIP6 data. Our main findings showed that regional ERs change in response to land use and environmental dynamics. Specifically, the ER area decreased by 27,673 m(2) during 2000-2020, but it is projected to increase by 13,273, 438, and 68 m2 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We also observed remarkable spatial differences in ESs and ERs between past and future scenarios. For instance, the source area of the URYR exhibited high ESs and low ERs (P<0.001), while the ESs and ERs are declining and increasing, respectively, in the northeastern URYR (P<0.05). Finally, we proposed a spatial optimization framework to improve ESs and reduce ERs, which will support regional sustainable development.

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