Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000-2050
文献类型: 外文期刊
第一作者: Xia Tian
作者: Xia Tian;Wu Wenbin;Zhou Qingbo;Yang Peng;Xia Tian;Tan Wenxia;Verburg, Peter H.;Ye Liming;Ye Liming
作者机构:
关键词: Northeast China; land use; spatio-temporal change; scenario; ecosystem service
期刊名称:JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES ( 影响因子:3.534; 五年影响因子:3.647 )
ISSN: 1009-637X
年卷期: 2018 年 28 卷 11 期
页码:
收录情况: SCI
摘要: Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications. Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use, but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking. Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China (NEC) over the period of 2000-2050 using the CLUE-S (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security (ESS), food security (FSS) and comprehensive development (CDS). The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005. Overall, the accuracy of the CLUE-S model was evaluated at 82.5%. Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain, forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains, while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands. Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan, the ecological service value (ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050. The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios. Thus, CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection, especially for the wetlands, which should be given higher priority for future development. The issue of coordination is also critical in future development. The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.
分类号:
- 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>
-
From statistics to grids: A two-level model to simulate crop pattern dynamics
作者:XIA, Tian;ZHOU, Qing-bo;HU, Qiong;XIA, Tian;WU, Wen-bin;YANG, Peng;ZHOU, Qing-bo;VERBURG, Peter H.;ZHU, Xiao-juan;YE, Li-ming;ZHU, Xiao-juan
关键词:crop planting pattern; spatialization; simulation; spatiotemporal change; remote sensing
-
Impact of cropland displacement on the potential crop production in China: a multi-scale analysis
作者:Yang, Bohan;Yang, Bohan;van Vliet, Jasper;Verburg, Peter H.;Ke, Xinli;Zhou, Ting;Yu, Qiangyi;Zhou, Ting;Verburg, Peter H.
关键词:Land use change; Cropland displacement; Potential crop production; Land use policy; Food security
-
GlobeLand30 shows little cropland area loss but greater fragmentation in China
作者:Yu, Qiangyi;Hu, Qiong;Wu, Wenbin;Yu, Qiangyi;van Vliet, Jasper;Verburg, Peter H.;Verburg, Peter H.
关键词:Land use change;Fragmentation;Characterization;Gross change;Cropland protection;GlobeLand30
-
Design of a spatial sampling scheme considering the spatial autocorrelation of crop acreage included in the sampling units
作者:Wang Di;Zhou Qing-bo;Yang Peng;Chen Zhong-xin
关键词:crop acreage; spatial autocorrelation; sampling unit; planting intensity; cultivated land fragmentation; ground slope
-
Harvested area gaps in China between 1981 and 2010: effects of climatic and land management factors
作者:Yu, Qiangyi;Yang, Peng;Wu, Wenbin;Yu, Qiangyi;van Vliet, Jasper;Verburg, Peter H.;Verburg, Peter H.;You, Liangzhi
关键词:land use change; multiple cropping; cropping frequency; food security; land use intensity; climate change
-
Environmental cognitions mediate the causal explanation of land change
作者:Yu, Qiangyi;Wu, Wenbin;Verburg, Peter H.;Verburg, Peter H.
关键词:Attitude; causal chain; decision-making; driver; land use change; perception
-
Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region
作者:Chen Di;Yu Qiangyi;Hu Qiong;Xiang Mingtao;Zhou Qingbo;Wu Wenbin
关键词:spatio-temporal change; land conversion; intensification; multi-cropping; fragmentation; GlobeLand30